Quarterly financial reports play a vital role on Wall Street, as they help investors see how a company has performed and what might be coming down the road in the near-term. And out of all of the metrics and results to consider, earnings is one of the most important.
We know earnings results are vital, but how a company performs compared to bottom line expectations can be even more important when it comes to stock prices, especially in the near-term. This means that investors might want to take advantage of these earnings surprises.
The Zacks Expected Surprise Prediction, or ESP, works by locking in on the most up-to-date analyst earnings revisions because they can be more accurate than estimates from weeks or even months before the actual release date. The thinking is pretty straightforward: analysts who provide earnings estimates closer to the report are likely to have more information. With this in mind, the Expected Surprise Prediction compares the Most Accurate Estimate (being the most recent) against the overall Zacks Consensus Estimate. The percentage difference provides the ESP figure.
The last thing we will do today, now that we have a grasp on the ESP and how powerful of a tool it can be, is to look at a qualifying stock. Corning (GLW) holds a Zacks Rank #2 at the moment and its Most Accurate Estimate comes in at $0.57 a share seven days away from its upcoming earnings release on January 29, 2025.
By taking the percentage difference between the $0.57 Most Accurate Estimate and the $0.56 Zacks Consensus Estimate, Corning has an Earnings ESP of 2.05%.
GLW is one of just a large database of Computer and Technology stocks with positive ESPs. Another solid-looking stock is Akamai Technologies (AKAM).
Akamai Technologies is a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock, and is getting ready to report earnings on February 20, 2025. AKAM’s Most Accurate Estimate sits at $1.52 a share 29 days from its next earnings release.
Akamai Technologies’ Earnings ESP figure currently stands at 0.09% after taking the percentage difference between its Most Accurate Estimate and its Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.52.
Because both stocks hold a positive Earnings ESP, GLW and AKAM could potentially post earnings beats in their next reports.
Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they’re reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>
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