Wall Street watches a company’s quarterly report closely to understand as much as possible about its recent performance and what to expect going forward. Of course, one figure often stands out among the rest: earnings.
We know earnings results are vital, but how a company performs compared to bottom line expectations can be even more important when it comes to stock prices, especially in the near-term. This means that investors might want to take advantage of these earnings surprises.
The Zacks Earnings ESP, or Expected Surprise Prediction, aims to find earnings surprises by focusing on the most recent analyst revisions. The basic premise is that if an analyst reevaluates their earnings estimate ahead of an earnings release, it means they likely have new information that could possibly be more accurate. The core of the ESP model is comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, where the resulting percentage difference between the two equals the Expected Surprise Prediction.
Now that we understand what the ESP is and how beneficial it can be, let’s dive into a stock that currently fits the bill. Seagate (STX) earns a Zacks Rank #3 right now and its Most Accurate Estimate sits at $2.52 a share, just eight days from its upcoming earnings release on July 29, 2025.
STX has an Earnings ESP figure of +2.34%, which, as explained above, is calculated by taking the percentage difference between the $2.52 Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.46.
STX is one of just a large database of Computer and Technology stocks with positive ESPs. Another solid-looking stock is Datadog (DDOG).
Datadog, which is readying to report earnings on August 7, 2025, sits at a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) right now. Its Most Accurate Estimate is currently $0.42 a share, and DDOG is 17 days out from its next earnings report.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Datadog is $0.41, and when you take the percentage difference between that number and its Most Accurate Estimate, you get the Earnings ESP figure of +2.83%.
STX and DDOG’s positive ESP metrics may signal that a positive earnings surprise for both stocks is on the horizon.
Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they’re reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>
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